Palan-Review
Shane opened with his own tanker data for Oct. 18 to Nov. 2, 2026. He counted at least eight strikes in Hormuz, mostly on gas carriers, plus hits on support tugs sent to recover disabled ships. Iran said it struck 11 tankers in the past week, a figure Shane flagged as unverified because many ships now sail with transponders off and the UK Maritime Trade Operations office said in mid-October it can no longer confirm many incidents.
Shane said export estimates vary widely by tracker, with Reuters and other aggregators putting Hormuz flows about 70% below baseline. He said war-risk insurance has risen from about 0.25% of a cargo’s value to 6% to 10%, a cost Nick said lands on consumers, not shipping companies. Nick described the U.S.–Israeli pause in strikes as an election-season move that has not lowered prices.
Shane then walked through Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s Oct. 31 written order for “maximum deterrence” and an unconfirmed exchange of fire near Qeshm Island. He said a preemptive Iranian strike after the midterms is about as likely as a U.S. first move.
After Shane stepped away, Nick turned to the domestic side. He pointed listeners facing voter intimidation to the Election Protection hotline and covered the release of records on more than 41,000 DHS employees, published by Distributed Denial of Secrets on Oct. 28. He noted a federal judge dismissed the Justice Department’s lawsuit over Alaska’s two Dan Sullivans.
Nick closed on The Intercept’s analysis: AI super PACs spent $50.7 million in the primaries, but only 5% of their direct spending has reached contested general election races. He credited public opposition to data center buildouts. Shane, back on air, said the buildouts are a rushed attempt to justify about $1.3 trillion in capital spending.
“Report the truth because sometimes the truth isn’t inflammatory enough.” — Nick Paro
Key Takeaways
The Hormuz numbers don’t agree, so watch the spread. Trackers disagree on volumes, but Shane’s strike count climbed from late October, and insurance at 6% to 10% of cargo value feeds prices.
Expect more challenges after Nov. 3. Nick said the 60 days before the new Congress is seated on Jan. 3, 2027, will bring more suits like Alaska’s; DOJ has already appealed.
Data center opposition changed AI spending. Leading the Future held $34 million in cash as of Oct. 26 while staying out of most swing races.
Orgs and Concepts Mentioned
Organizations/Programs
Election Protection — nonpartisan hotline (866-OUR-VOTE) staffed by trained volunteers who take reports of voter intimidation.
UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) — British naval office that issues shipping incident alerts in the region.
Leading the Future — AI-industry super PAC network backed by OpenAI’s president and investors.
Concepts/Terms
AIS dark — a ship sailing with its Automatic Identification System transponder off, hiding its position from trackers and other vessels.
Mosaic doctrine — Iran’s decentralized defense model, which Shane said gives 31 provincial commands independent authority to engage ships.
Limpet mine — an explosive attached to a ship’s hull by hand or small craft.
What you can do: If someone at your door or polling place tries to intimidate voters, record it and call 866-OUR-VOTE (866-687-8683).
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Call your public servants on important issues:
Join the efforts to de-flock the States:
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Reach out on Signal: @TheOrdersProject.76
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Thank you Ms.Yuse, GW B, Coffee is Life ☕️, Sandra, Sam, and many others for tuning into my live video with Shane Yirak! Join me for my next live video in the app.
